Hybrids Surge, Brands Face Culling: First Full MAPP Charts the Worst Product Drought on Record

NEW YORK, Sept. 15, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Hybrids could capture roughly one-third of the U.S. new-vehicle market by MY2031 while the number of automotive brands in the country could shrink from 38 to roughly 30 by 2035, according to the first full Murphy Automotive Product Pipeline (MAPP). The full report is now available to licensed subscribers, with a free preview at view.protectedpdf.com/portal/map/SignUp.

The 280-page report published this week analyzes the U.S. automotive product pipeline through the end of the decade and finds automakers tearing up product plans built for an EV future that has not arrived. Hybrid adoption is accelerating faster than expected just months ago. Automakers face the worst three-year new-product drought on record, and intensifying global competition and policy uncertainty are raising questions about which brands ultimately survive.

“The story is the trajectory,” Murphy Automotive Partners Founder and Managing Partner John Murphy said. “Our hybrid forecast has gone from 27% to 34% in just the last few months, and the bias is still to the upside. At the same time, there are going to be casualties. The product and powertrain decisions automakers are making now will determine who gains share, who makes money and, ultimately, which brands survive.”

The MAPP is a proprietary bottom-up forecast of every new and next-generation U.S. light vehicle the firm expects over the next five model years: what is launching, when, in which segment and with which powertrain. It is built on unique metrics such as Vehicle Redesign Rate (VRR) and Average Product Age (APA) that have predicted share gains and losses for decades.

Hybrids surge as automakers reset powertrain strategies

Hybrids are now projected to grow from roughly 14% of the U.S. market in 2025 to approximately 34% by MY2031. That is up from approximately 27% in the MAPP compact edition released in June, and the bias remains to the upside.

The growth comes almost entirely at the expense of traditional internal-combustion vehicles, rather than EVs. EV share was just under 8% in 2025, should dip to roughly 5%-6% in the near term and then recover to approximately its 2025 share by model year 2031.

Toyota is on track to be roughly 65% hybrid by the end of the decade, GM closer to 9%. Those strategies should converge somewhat as virtually all automakers pursue multiple powertrains rather than an all-EV future.

“The precise mix remains uncertain, but what is increasingly clear is that the answer is not 100% EV,” Murphy said.

U.S. could go from 38 automotive brands today to roughly 30

The MAPP also includes Murphy Automotive Partners’ new Brand Survival Index (BSI), which assesses the long-term viability of automotive brands.

There are 38 brands operating in the U.S. today, a number expected to rise to 39 with the arrival of Scout. The BSI suggests roughly 10% could disappear within the next five to 10 years. If automakers more aggressively rationalize their portfolios around profitability and returns, attrition could approach 20%, potentially leaving the U.S. with roughly 30 brands by 2035. The base case leaves roughly 35.

No brand in the U.S. market currently qualifies as Entrenched. The BSI places brands into four categories: Entrenched, Secure, Watch and At-Risk. The top category is empty.

Honda, Ford, Toyota, Hyundai and Lexus make up the leading group within Secure, while Polestar, Maserati, Alfa Romeo, Jaguar and Fiat make up the bottom group within At-Risk. Most of the remaining brands fall between those extremes, including 19 in the Watch category.

“No one brand is 100% safe,” Murphy said. “A couple of bad product cycles can change the trajectory of a brand very quickly. Automakers, suppliers and dealers all need to think about that as they decide where they allocate capital over the next decade.”

Chinese automakers add to the pressure even without entering the U.S. market. Chinese vehicle exports went from roughly 1 million units in 2020 to more than 7 million in 2025, becoming the largest auto exporter in the world in about five years. That share is coming out of incumbents’ international volume, scale and profits, which puts greater pressure on their U.S. businesses.

The potential shakeout also continues a century-long trend. Roughly 290 automotive brands have sold vehicles in the U.S. in the last century. Fewer than 15% survived.

Historic product desert could keep consumers on the sidelines

Before that longer-term shakeout plays out, automakers must navigate what MAPP identifies as the worst three-year new-product drought on record.

The MY2026-2028 period represents an unprecedented hole in the product cycle, with several automakers facing effectively blank years. EV programs that absorbed substantial product-development spending have been delayed or canceled, while that capital was not simultaneously invested in replacement ICE and hybrid programs. That capital has a number. There have been more than $70 billion in EV write-downs and program cancellations so far. That is the bill for the EV head fake: automakers built product plans around a powertrain inflection that did not arrive as expected.

The result is what Murphy calls a “product desert.”

Consumers returning to dealerships on a typical three-to-five-year trade-in cycle may encounter essentially the same vehicle they already own, at a price 30%-40% higher.

“You can have pent-up demand and improving conditions, but consumers still need a reason to buy,” Murphy said. “If they walk into a showroom and see essentially the same vehicle they bought three or four years ago at a dramatically higher price, many of them are going to wait.”

The MAPP projects APA peaking at a record 4.8 years in MY2028 before declining as the launch cycle recovers.

The product drought could cap U.S. new-vehicle demand even if economic conditions otherwise support a 17 million to 18 million seasonally adjusted annual selling rate. The MAPP expects new-product activity to rebound beginning in MY2029 as delayed ICE and hybrid programs reach the market.

Policy uncertainty creates “active paralysis” following the EV head fake

Every one of those decisions is complicated by the mismatch between long automotive investment cycles and rapidly changing government policy.

Murphy calls the result “active paralysis.” Executives are logically delaying major capital decisions as they wait for greater clarity on tariffs, trade, emissions, fuel-economy standards and other policies.

Automotive product programs typically operate on five-to-seven-year cycles, while major powertrain investments can span 10 to 15 years.

“This isn’t executives caught like deer in the headlights,” Murphy said. “It is an active process of waiting because, right now, waiting can be the rational decision. The problem is that investment doesn’t happen, jobs don’t get created and economic activity slows.”

That uncertainty comes as automakers simultaneously confront the cost of supporting multiple powertrains, changing consumer demand and increasing global competition.

“We call it the MAPP because everybody needs a map to understand where they’re going,” Murphy said. “There is so much uncertainty in the industry right now that understanding the product pipeline has become more important than ever.”

The 280-page MAPP report is now available to licensed subscribers. Register for a free preview at view.protectedpdf.com/portal/map/SignUp or learn more at www.murphyautomotivepartners.com.

About Murphy Automotive Partners

Murphy Automotive Partners is an independent automotive research and advisory firm founded by widely recognized auto analyst John Murphy to serve as Strategic Counsel to the Industry. The firm’s proprietary metrics track vehicle redesign cadence, product age, model mix and brand survival to help leaders across the auto value chain make sharper product, capital and competitive decisions. Learn more at www.murphyautomotivepartners.com.

About John Murphy

John Murphy spent more than 26 years as the senior North American automotive equity research analyst at Bank of America (previously Merrill Lynch), where he and his team were named to the Institutional Investor All-America Research Team for 25 years. He authored Car Wars, the benchmark study of OEM product-pipeline competitiveness, alongside The Dealer Manual and Who Makes the Car, and founded and hosted the bank’s annual New York Auto Summit for 17 years. He played an integral role in advising investors during the landmark IPOs of General Motors, Rivian, Ferrari, and Delphi, alongside many other major capital raises. A frequent voice on CNBC, Bloomberg TV, and Yahoo Finance, he was recognized by the Automotive Hall of Fame as an Industry Influencer in 2023. He holds a B.A. in Quantitative Economics from Tufts University and is a CFA charterholder.

Media Contact: Katie Merx · media@murphyautomotivepartners.com · +1 313.510.5090